Siena: Bishop Up In NY-1, NY-24 A Dead Heat
Siena is out today with two more polls of contested New York congressional races, this time looking at a pair of re-matches from the 2010 midterms.
In NY-1 out on Long Island, Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop has an early 13 percentage point lead over his Republican opponent, businessman Randy Altschuler, despite a spate of bad headlines regarding his fundraising tactics.
Bishop is ahead 52-39 among likely voters, with eight percent undecided. He also leads on all seven key issue questions posed by the pollsters – from the economy to health care.
Altschuler came within about 600 votes of toppling Bishop two years ago. This time around the district’s GOP and Conservative leaders are united behind him, which theoretically relieves the pressure of a contentious primary and should make him a stronger contender.
Also this year, Altschuler has the Independence Party line, which provided Bishop with more than 7,000 votes in 2010.
Voters in NY-1 are evenly split in the race for the White House, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each receiving 47 percent of the vote.
Out in Central New York, voters in NY-24 are split over whether to re-elect Republican Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle or return the Democrat she toppled in 2010, ex-Rep. Dan Maffei, to office.
Both candidates receive 43 percent of the vote, with the Green Party’s Ursula Rozum getting 7 percent and 6 percent undecided.
In 2010, Buerkle won a squeaker of a race, defeating Maffei by less than 700 votes. From the looks of this poll, we may be in for another cliffhanger.
Buerkle is out-performing Maffei with independents by nine percentage points. He has a better favorability rating (49-37 with 14 percent having no opinion) than she does (44-44, 11 percent). A whopping 81 percent said they didn’t know enough about Rozum to have an opinion of her.
Syracuse voters support Maffei two-to-one, but the candidates are nearly tied in the remainder of Onondaga County, the largest portion of the district. Buerkle leads by 12 points outside of Onondaga.
NY-24 voters gave a slight edge to Buerkle (two percentage points) when asked which candidate would do a better job of addressing the massive federal budget deficit. Otherwise, Maffei led in all issue areas.
Obama leads Romney in the district, 55-36.
Said Siena’s Steve Greenberg:
“Voters in the 24th C.D. should brace themselves for an eight week barrage of television and radio commercials – positive and negative – paid for by the candidates, the parties and independent expenditure groups. They may even need to get bigger mailboxes.”
“Ranked by many national pundits as one of the top ten most competitive House races in the country, this is clearly living up to expectations. This race looks like it’s going to be as exciting and as close as the heartbreaking Syracuse Orange last minute loss to Northwestern.”
|Print article||This entry was posted by Liz Benjamin on September 13, 2012 at 6:31 am, and is filed under Congress, Polls, Uncategorized. Follow any responses to this post through RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.|