Siena Senate Polls: Ulrich And Addabbo Neck-and-Neck, Grisanti Way Ahead
Siena’s second round of polls of competitive state Senate contests that could prove crucial in the upcoming re-match for control of the chamber give Sen. Mark Grisanti and his fellow Republicans reason to celebrate on this Columbus Day.
The survey of what is currently a four-way race in the 60th SD found the following:
Grisanti has the support of 47 percent of likely voters, compared to Democrat Michael Amodeo’s 23 percent, Conservative candidate Charles Swanick’s 17 percent, and 6 percent for Gregory Davis on the Working Families Party line.
(The WFP voted last week to endorse Amodeo and put him on Row D by nominating Davis for a judgeship, but it remains unclear if that will happen, thanks to some legal technicalities).
You’ll recall that Grisanti, one of the four Republican senators who voted “yes” on same-sex marriage last summer, easily won the Sept. 13 GOP primary. Amodeo defeated Swanick in the Democratic primary.
Grisanti’s supporters include 61 percent of Republicans, 59 percent of independents and 34 percent of Democrats.
Amodeo leads the senator (who used to be a Democrat himself) by just four percentage points among Democrats.
Grisanti leads big with women, bigger with men and by nearly identically large margins among voters he currently represents and voters new to the district redrawn by the senator’s GOP colleagues to improve his re-election chances.
Prior to redistricting, the 60th SD was one of the most Democrat-dominated districts in the state, which is why it was so surprising when Grisanti defeated former Democratic Sen. Antoine Thompson in 2010.
Grisanti has a 59-30 favorable/unfavorable rating, and is viewed positively by a majority of voters in all parties.
Amodeo, unknown to more than half of voters, has a favorability rating of 25-18, while Swanick is viewed unfavorably by more voters than view him favorably.
President Obama leads Mitt Romney by 14 percentage points – 54-40 – in the 60th SD, which has a 19-point Democratic enrollment edge. Independents are closely divided, favoring Obama 47-43.
Siena’s Steve Greenberg notes that is Grisanti had just one opponent, this race “might be more interesting since his support falls below 50 percent.”
“However, with Amodeo splitting the votes of those opposed to Grisanti, the incumbent appears to be in a commanding position,” Greenberg continued.
“He is well known and widely liked, and he’s seen as much better on all the issues. It’s going to take an awful lot to change the dynamic of this race in four weeks.”
In the 15th SD in Queens, NYC Councilman Eric Ulrich is running neck-and-neck with Democratic Sen. Joe Addabbo, who receives 45 percent of the vote to Ulrich’s 43. Twelve percent are undecided.
Ulrich has the support of 76 percent of Republicans, while Addabbo has support from 63 percent of Democrats. Ulrich has a commanding 57-27 percent lead among independents.
Addabbo leads by five points in the portion of the district he currently represents, while Ulrich leads by five points in the areas new to this district, and has an eight-point lead in his current council district.
Also bad for Addabbo: Voters in the district are evenly split on which party should control the Senate, and on the generic re-election question, just 40 percent say they’d like to return him to Albany, while 41 percent would prefer to be represented by someone else.
The presidential race in the 15th SD is as also tight, with Obama leading Romney 48-45. By a two-to-one margin, independents side with Romney.
“The presidential race looks very similar to the Senate race,” Greenberg said. “In other words, this figures to be a barn burner straight through to Election Day.”
In the four Senate polls conducted by Siena to date, the advantage in the battle for control of the majority so far lies with the Republicans, Greenberg said.
He noted the races for two Democrat-held seats are too close to call, while one Republican seat appears safe and another has an eight-point Republican lead.
Crosstabs for the 60th SD (Grisanti vs. Amodeo vs. Swanick vs. Davis):
Crosstabs for the 15th SD (Addabbo vs. Ulrich):
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