I think Steve Greenberg’s press release headline says it best:

“So Much Campaigning; So Much Money; So Little Movement.”

Seven weeks and millions of dollars after Siena’s first poll found Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei is a dead heat, with each receiving 43 percent of the vote, the two candidates have both gained a meager one percentage point, bringing the NY-24 race to a 44-44 deadlock.

Green Party candidate Ursula Rozum is receiving 8 percent, while a mere 3 percent remain undecided.

Buerkle and Maffei each have the support of 76 percent of the voters in their respective parties.

While Buerkle has a small three-point lead among independents in a district virtually evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, this race is tied because Maffei gets slightly more support from Republicans than Buerkle gets from Democrats, Greenberg said.

Maffei leads in Syracuse 60-26, compared to 60-30 percent in September.

Buerkle edges out Maffei in the rest of Onondaga County 46-44 – virtually unchanged from 45-44 percent.

She also leads 49-37 in the rest of the district, compared to 45-33 in September.

Maffei now leads with women by 12 points after previously trailing by one point, and Buerkle leads among men by 13 points.

More than eight in 10 voters on both sides say they will not be changing their minds come Election Day.

But only one-third of Rozum’s supporters are that committed to their candidate, so it’s possible either Maffei or Buerkle could pick up some of the Green Party candidate’s backers come Tuesday.

Both Maffei and Buerkle are viewed slightly more unfavorably than favorably by NY-24 voters, but his favorables have taken more of a hit than hers during this campaign.

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in NY-24. But that race has tightened. It’s now at 53-42, which is down from Obama’s 19 point lead in September.

As Greenberg says: It all comes down to GOTV now. Whichever candidate is better at getting his or her supporters to the polls is likely to win this one.

But it’s very likely to go into overtime.

Maffei has already gone to court seeking an impoundment order for all the ballots cast Tuesday. The two sides are due in court for a hearing Monday afternoon.

CD24 November 2012 Crosstabs