TWC News/Siena Poll: Gibson Holds 24-Point Lead Over Eldridge
Republican Congressman Chris Gibson has a 24 percentage point lead over his Democratic challenger Sean Eldridge with less than two months until Election Day, according to an exclusive Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll.
The poll found that Gibson, a two-term incumbent, would defeat Eldridge 57 percent to 33 percent. Meanwhile, Gibson enjoys a 57 percent favorable rating. Coincidentally, 57 percent of voters haven’t heard enough about Eldridge to form an opinion, despite his TV ads airing in heavy rotation.
Eldridge also has some work to do with members of his own party. The poll found 25 percent of Democrats back Gibson in the Hudson Valley district. And 60 percent of voters not enrolled in a party also back the incumbent Republican’s re-election.
Eldridge still brings a lot of money to the campaign: His husband is the wealthy co-founder of Facebook and the candidate himself is a venture capitalist as well as an advocate for the public financing of political campaigns.
The Gibson campaign has knocked the lack of ties Eldridge to the district, while Democrats have pointed to Gibson’s support from political action committees and have sought to tie him to the tea party.
Despite Eldridge’s troubles, the poll did find support for a variety of liberal issues.
Sixty-four percent support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants while also securing the nation’s borders. Sixty-seven percent back the so-called Buffett Rule for taxing millionaires and there is broad support — 67 percent to 21 percent — for increasing the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour.
Voters surveyed say they are split on preserving Obamacare, 44 percent supporting repealing and replacing it, and 45 percent opposing such an action.
And in a sign that voters aren’t thrilled with incumbents generally, 71 percent back term limits for members of Congress.
Not surprisingly, the most important issue of the campaign is jobs (33 percent of voters), followed by Social Secutiy/Medicare (17 percent) as well as health care (15 percent).
Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo, an early endorser of Eldridge, posted low numbers in the NY-19. Sixty-percent of voters have an unfavorable opinion of Cuomo, compared to 30 percent who have a favorable view.
Matched up with his Republican opponent, Rob Astorino, Cuomo leads 39 percent to 36 percent.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 4 and between Sept. 7 and Sept. 9, surveyed 609 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
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