With a week to go before Election Day, Republican Congressman Chris Gibson is on track to win a third term over his Demcoratic challenger, Sean Eldridge, according to an exclusive Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of the 19th congressional district.

The poll found Gibson leading Eldridge 58 percent to 35 percent — a 23 percentage point gap. That’s virtually unchanged from a poll released in September that showed Gibson with a 24-point lead. Meanwhile, Gibson enjoys a high favorable rating — 60 percent. Eldridge, a first-time candidate, has become better known, but 35 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of him compared to 33 percent who view him favorably.

Gibson remains well liked among Republicans, with 78 percent supporting him. Democrats are split, but not by much: 41 percent hold a favorable view compared to 45 percent who do not.

Overall, 28 percent of Democrats poll said they would vote for Gibson, compared to 67 percent who side Eldridge.

Perhaps most problematic for Eldridge is a solid majority of voters have made up their minds in the race: 69 percent say they have made their decision, with no chance they’ll change their mind. Of those voters, 71 percent say they’re voting for Gibson.

“Barring some dramatic, unforeseen event in the closing week of this campaign, the voters are clearly locked in,” Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said.

Gibson’s lead comes despite a flurry of advertising on television and the radio from Eldridge’s campaign The ads have blasted Gibson for supporting hydrofracking and for campaign contributions his opponent says influenced his votes in Washington. But the ads have apparently had little impact.

Gibson, too, has spent heavily on ads knocking Eldridge as a carpetbagger, while the National Republican Campaign Committee has provided some attack ads as well.

Nevertheless, a plurality of voters — 40 percent — believe Eldridge is running the more negative campaign.

In the race for governor, incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo trails Republican Rob Astorino in the 19th congressional district 38 percent to 39 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives 14 percent of the vote.

It’s a reverse for Cuomo, who last month led Astorino 39 percent to 36 percent. Nevertheless, Siena pollster Steve Greenberg says that’s a reflection of the closely divided congressional district.

The poll of 727 likely voters in the NY-19 was conducted from Oct. 22 through Oct. 24. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

CD191014 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman