Polls

Siena Poll: Support Collapses For Con Con

Support among voters for holding a constitutional convention has plummeted, with a majority opposing next Tuesday’s referendum, a Siena College poll released this morning found.

The poll of likely voters found, by a margin of 57 percent to 25 percent, oppose holding a convention. A similarly wide majority of voters, 60 percent to 29 percent, believe that holding a convention will be too costly and a waste of time, as opposed to a once-a-generation chance to remake state government.

The poll comes after previous surveys of registered voters have shown support for holding a convention, though it had been on a steady decline.

And the lopsided change comes after several weeks of spending by labor unions and others in a coalition opposing the convention, who worry that holding one would put hard-won benefits in the existing constitution at risk.

Labor unions have spent heavily opposing the convention, pouring millions of dollars into an advertising and mail campaign to urge opposition. At the same time, labor groups and environmental organizations have been conducting member-to-member efforts.

Turnout is expected to be minimal in next week’s off-cycle vote and voters will also consider two ballot questions for constitutional amendments: Stripping officials convicted of felonies of their pensions and the creation of a land bank in the Adirondacks and Catskills parks.

With less than a week to go before Election Day, a third of voters said they’ve heard or read a lot about the referendum, while 27 percent responded they have heard or read something. Only 19 percent say they’ve received no information.

Supporters of holding a convention believe it’s a chance to institute needed reforms in state government. And voters generally are supportive of some of those potential reforms, the poll found.

Eighty-four percent would back term limits for lawmakers and 79 percent back term limits for state elected officials; 77 percent support ending the practice of limited liability companies giving unlimited funds to campaigns; 74 percent back allowing initiative and referendum on the ballot; 65 percent support banning full-time employment for the Legislature.

Bigger changes to the state are opposed, however, with only 34 percent supporting limits to collective bargaining and 37 percent supporting revising “forever wild” requirements for the Adirondacks to allow for development. Both are issues that labor unions and environmental groups believe are at stake if a convention is held; voters would have to approve any changes to the constitution developed at a convention.

Meanwhile, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s approval rating stands at 52 percent to 43 percent, according to the Siena poll among likely voters.

President Trump’s favorability rating among New York voters has improved slightly, but remains only at 31 percent among likely voters.

The poll of 814 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 29. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

SNY1017 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman on Scribd

Curran Campaign Memo Shows Curran Ahead (Updated)

On the heels of the release by GOP Nassau County executive candidate Jack Martins’ campaign this morning of a polling memo that shows him leading his Democratic opponent, Laura Curran, among likely voters with Election Day fast approaching, the Curran campaign has responded with its own polling memo that shows…well, the exact opposite result.

According to the memo prepared for Curran by the polling and consulting firm Global Strategy Group, the Democratic Nassau County legislator leads her former state senator opponent by four percentage points, 43-39, with 17 percent of voters still undecided though there is just over one week remaining in the race.

Global Strategy Group found that Curran is “better known than her GOP rival and maintains strongly positive personal ratings,” and also that the Democrats have “advantages on key partisan metrics while Martins must contend with the extreme negativity surrounding the corruption connected to prominent Nassau County Republicans.”

That explains why Curran has been consistently trying to tie Martins to the man whose seat both candidates are trying to win, retiring Republican County Executive Ed Mangano, who opted not to seek re-election as he fights federal corruption charges; as well as former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, another Long Island Republican felled by a federal corruption case, (though his conviction was overturned due to a U.S. Supreme Court decision).

According to the memo, which appears in full below, a majority of voters have unfavorable opinions of Mangano (20 percent favorable/56 percent unfavorable), and the level of negativity is just as great for Skelos (15 percent favorable/47 percent unfavorable).

Also, the memo maintains, President Donald Trump is “unpopular and a liability for a fellow Republican like Martins,” (41 percent favorable/51 percent unfavorable; 44 percent very unfavorable).

UPDATE: A sharp-eyed reader who pays close attention to detail notes that the Global Strategy poll was conducted Oct. 16-17, which was almost two weeks ago now, whereas the poll conducted for the Martins campaign was in the field much more recently – Oct. 25-26 – and so ostensibly has more updated information.

Take into consideration, of course, that neither side is releasing the entirety of their respective surveys, only the interpretations of the results by the firms that collected and analyzed the data, so it’s difficult to say from an objective standpoint which is more accurate.

Nassau County Tracking Memo F10.30.17 by liz_benjamin6490 on Scribd

Martins Campaign Polling Memo Shows Martins Ahead

From the Morning Memo:

Nassau County executive candidate Jack Martins’ campaign released a polling memo that shows the Republican candidate leading his Democratic opponent, Laura Curran, by six percentage points among likely voters with 10 days remaining until the November election.

The poll, conducted for Martins by Clout Research LLC, found the former state senator beating the Nassau County legislator 47-41. The firm’s founder, Fritz Wenzel, said Martins has remained ahead over the past two months due to the fact that his favorability rating has been stronger than hers.

“While Curran’s favorability has grown to by 17 percentage points to 47 perent of the electorate, Martins’ favorability has grown even more,” Wenzel wrote. “He is now viewed favorably by 55 percent of survey respondents (a 20 percentage point improvement). By five percentage points, Martins is also slightly more well-known than Curran to Nassau County votes.”

Both candidates have improved their support among their respective political bases over the past two months, with Curran jumping from 72 percent to 80 percent with Democratic, Working Families Party and Green Party members, and Martins moving up from 77 percent to 82 percent among Republicans and Conservatives.

Martins is also seen favorably by 35 percent of Democrats across the aisle, compared to 27 percent of Republicans that see Curran in a favorable light, according to the memo.

Martins also continues to perform well in his old Senate district, and leads among white voters and male voters, while Curran is ahead with women.

The intense focus on sexual harassment scandals in Hollywood, publishing, media and the arts spurred Clout Research to inquire about the local situation in Nassau County.

According to the memo, the firm found that Curran “suffers significantly by not criticizing – and even campaigning alongside – Democratic Party-endorsed candidates for county clerk, the county legislature and town clerk who have either been charged or accused of physically assaulting and harassing women.”

Martins has publicly criticized Curran on this issue, leading the Democrat to accuse her opponent of making a “a desperate ploy for attention.” She also noted that Martins continued to support then-presidential candidate Donald Trump even after the emergence of the Access Hollywood tape in which Trump bragged about assaulting women.

Also, in the case of Dean Bennett, the Democratic candidate for county clerk, Curran said there is no proof of any allegations being lodged against him.

The Martins polling memo appears in full below. Martins and Curran are competing for the seat that is being vacated by Republican Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano, who opted not to seek re-election as he fights federal corruption charges.

NY – Nassau County Survey Polling Memorandum 10-27-2017-2 by liz_benjamin6490 on Scribd

Siena Poll: Cuomo’s Numbers Are Up After Rough Summer

After a rough summer of mass transit trouble in New York City, Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s approval and favorability ratings are up in a Siena College released Friday morning.

The poll found Cuomo’s favorability rating has bumped up to 57 percent to 35 percent, a slight increase from a 56 percent to 37 percent rating last month.

His job performance remains negative, however, with 48 percent approving and 50 percent disapproving. Still, that’s up from last month, when he recorded a 43 percent to 55 percent job performance, the poll found. At the same time, that’s a 10 percentage-point jump after it was flat last month, due to his support from Democratic and independent voters.

More than half of voters, 52 percent, are prepared to re-elect the governor, who is seeking a third term next year. Forty-one percent would prefer a generic “someone else.” The margin is an improvement for Cuomo from July, when 48 percent of voters backed his re-election bid and 44 percent preferred someone else.

President Trump’s ratings in New York continue to tank, meanwhile. Trump has a negative 28 percent to 68 percent favorability rating, down from a 29 percent to 66 percent spread in September. His job performance rating has remained virtually flat at 23 percent approval to 77 percent disapproval.

Though Cuomo is not on the ballot this year, a referendum on whether to hold a constitutional convention is, and support for the measure appears to be dropping, the poll found.

Voters by a narrow 44 percent to 39 percent margin back a convention, which is down from a 45 percent to 33 percent last month. They are also split on the potential effectiveness of a convention. Forty-four percent believe it’s a unique opportunity to revise the state constitution. Similarly, 45 percent believe holding a convention would be “an expensive waste of time.”

Nearly half of voters — 49 percent — said they have heard nothing at all about the coming referendum for a convention, which is held every 20 years.

Labor unions, environmental groups as well as conservative organizations have opposed the convention, believing deep-pocketed interests would seek to gain control of the convention and strip hard-won benefits from the constitution.

The convention is backed by some good-government organizations as well as attorneys, who believe it is a chance to update the constitution and combat structural problems in state government.

Fifty-three percent of voters said they would oppose a convention that strips unions of collective bargaining rights and 49 percent would not back any efforts to allow for more development in the Adirondack Park, which has protected status in the constitution.

The poll of 789 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 1 through Oct. 2. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

SNY0917 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman on Scribd

New Poll Claims WNY Disagrees With Bills/NFL About Protests

From the Morning Memo:

The Buffalo Bills organization may have alienated its fans in supporting player protests on Sunday, according to a recent poll.

The survey was commissioned by Western New York Republican consulting firm Big Dog Strategies, run by Chris Grant, a former aide to Rep. Chris Collins, who still has close ties to the congressman.

Grant partnered with Remington Research Group, a pollster that made its name, in part, by predicting a Donald Trump in 2016 win when others wouldn’t.

Following Monday night’s game, the pollsters said, they surveyed 1,390 likely 2018 general election voters at random via robocall.

“Anytime the president decides to devote a portion of his prime-time rally speech to talking about a cultural issue like this and any time the president devotes as much Twitter column inches, for a lack of a better phrase, as he has over the weekend, clearly it’s an issue that’s important and resonating,” Grant said.

Grant said he had a hunch that Americans, and Republicans in particular, agreed with the president’s statements about protesting during the national anthem, and the data beared that out.

Although Remington also did a nationwide poll, Grant said he specifically wanted to know what people thought in sports-crazed Western New York.

“Buffalo is a unique place in America,” he said. “It’s Democratically-aligned in terms of its politics, but culturally it’s a little bit more Conservative.”

According to the poll, only 23 percent of Western New Yorkers – which in this case includes parts of the greater Rochester area and the Southern Tier – support the protests.

Furthermore, about half of them said they’d be less likely to watch Bills games as a result of players taking a knee.

Grant said that while this issue is generally partisan, with more Republicans than Democrats agreeing with president, members of both parties and unaffiliated voters also would prefer to see less politics in sports.

Grant acknowledged people might question his motives, given his ties to well-known Trump supporters like Collins and Erie County Republican Committee Chairman Nick Langworthy, but insisted the numbers speak for themselves.

“At the end of the day, we let the data tell us the story, we don’t tell the data what to say,” he said.

One anonymous industry insider disagreed, arguing the survey was meant to elicit the response the pollster wanted, not gain actual insight.

For instance, the person questioned why it was weighted to match demographics, leading higher percentage of Republicans questioned from an electorate chosen by the firm in the first place.

The insider also said the questions were filled with loaded language designed to direct people to the “right answer.” Another example, the choices for whether voters supported the protest were: Support, There is a more appropriate place to protest, or No opinion.

Still, Grant stood by the poll’s results. He pointed to the fact that more voters actually had an unfavorable view than favorable view of Trump, but nevertheless seemed to agree with the president on this issue.

“There’s no tougher critic of political consultants than ourselves,” he said. “We take special pains to make sure that our data’s accurate because if it’s not accurate and we lose, then we don’t get clients anymore and so we spend a lot of time making sure that the methodology and the data’s correct.”

The next step, he said, will be to see if the poll’s results actually play out in reality for the remainder of the Bills’ season, but he believes the organization should be concerned.

Buffalo Voters Talk About Their Siena Poll Answers

From the Morning Memo:

As part of the most recent Spectrum News/Siena poll of the Buffalo Democratic mayoral primary, some of those questioned said they would be willing to discuss their answers.

Spectrum News spoke with a supporter of each candidate – incumbent Byron Brown, current city Comptroller Mark Schroeder, and current Erie County Legislator Betty Jean Grant – about why they plan to vote for their respective first choices at the ballot box today.

With nearly half of those surveyed saying they plan to back Brown, the mayor heads into today as the prohibitive favorite.

Voter Tito Malec said he didn’t always support the three-term incumbent, but he has come around, largely because he thinks crime is they city’s biggest issue and Brown is in the best position to fix it.

“You can do a lot of talking, but talking doesn’t mean it’s going to get done,” Malec said. “I don’t want to take a chance with other people that we get somebody in and in the next four years, nothing gets done.”

Adrian Rogers is among the 11 percent of poll participants who said they’d vote for Grant. Rogers said he doesn’t think Brown understands what all his constituents want, while Grant has been a community leader for decades.

“There are issues where he says he’s in touch with the people where he couldn’t be more out of touch, especially when it comes to environmental issues like testing with lead,” Rogers said. “Lead is a very big thing on the East Side right now, and he doesn’t focus on it.”

Conventional wisdom is that Comptroller Mark Schroeder’s base is largely in the traditionally Irish area of South Buffalo. That’s indeed where Schroeder supporter Joe Chisholm lives.

“Mark has walked our neighborhoods, he cares about our neighborhoods, he knows where people are. The other people – you don’t see them at all,” Chisholm explained. “I’m sorry but, we’re part of Buffalo. Gotta remember that part.”

The winner of the primary will still have to compete in the general election in November, but with a strong Democratic majority in the city and no Republican candidate on the ballot, will be the favorite to win the seat.

Spectrum News/Siena Poll: Miner Popular, But Loses To Cuomo In Syracuse

Democratic voters in Syracuse have a favorable opinion of outgoing Mayor Stephanie Miner, but she would lose in the city to Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a hypothetical gubernatorial primary, a Spectrum News/Siena College poll found.

The poll released on Wednesday found Miner holds a strong job performance rating of 58 percent to 41 percent. Her favorability rating is even higher, 69 percent to 26 percent, among Democratic voters in the city.

But Cuomo out polls Miner in the city 47 percent to 38 percent in a potential primary, with 11 percent of voters not holding an opinion.

Miner has said she is interested in running for governor next year. She has been a critic of Cuomo after having a falling out with him over local government and pension policy after briefly serving as the state Democratic Committee co-chair.

In the race to replace Miner as mayor, Juanita Perez Williams, a regional director for the Department of Labor, is locked in a virtual tie with Councilor-at-large Joe Nicoletti, 36 percent to 34 percent. City Auditor Martin Masterpole received support from 8 percent of voters polled.

The poll of 497 likely Democratic primary voters has a 4.6 percent margin of error and was conducted from Aug. 9 through Aug. 13.

AlbanyMayor0817 Crosstabs (1) by Nick Reisman on Scribd

Siena Poll: NY Voters Want To Keep Obamacare

Most New York voters want to see the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, kept in place and improved upon, according to a Siena College poll released on Thursday.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s favorable rating edged up slightly in New York, though remains low in his home state.

The poll found 65 percent of voters want to keep the Affordable Care Act in place, while 32 percent supporting repealing and replacing it. Not surprisingly, voters on partisan lines disagreed, with 83 percent of Democrats supporting keeping the law in place and 68 percent of Republicans backing the repeal option.

Among independents, support for keeping the law stands at 60 percent, the poll found.

Only 12 percent of voters believe the U.S. Senate should pass a similar bill to what was approved in the House of Representatives in May. The Senate bill remains up in the air after key Republican lawmakers said they could not support its current version.

Trump, the first New Yorker elected to the presidency since Franklin Roosevelt, is viewed favorably by 34 percent of New York voters, a slight uptick from a negative 30 percent to 65 percent rating in May.

When it comes to alleged Russian meddling in the presidential campaign last year, voters by a margin of 64 percent to 35 percent cay they are concerned, down slightly from a 68 percent to 31 percent spread in May.

The poll of 793 registered voters was conducted from July 9 through July 13. It has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

SNY0717 Crosstabs 072017 by Nick Reisman on Scribd

Siena: Clinton Maintains NY Lead, Loses a Little Ground to Trump

Though polls across the country have been tightening to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s disadvantage, she still maintains a comfortable lead over her Republican opponent, Donald Trump, in the candidates’ shared home state of New York, according to a new Siena poll.

Clinton is ahead of Trump by 21 percentage points – 51-30 percent – which is down a little from a 25-point, 50-25 percent lead last month, the poll found, with eight percent of voters saying they support Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and three percent backing Green Party nominee Jill Stein.

Clinton is maintaing support with her base better than Trump holds his, according to Siena poll spokesman Steve Greenberg. She leads with Democrats 75-10 percent, while Trump has a 67-16 percent lead with Republicans.

Independents, meanwhile, are closely divided, with 39 percent supporting Clinton and 37 percent backing Trump. ?Clinton leads by a whopping 52 points in New York City and six points upstate; but the two candidates are running virtually even in the downstate suburbs.

?The gender gap has narrowed, and Clinton now leads Trump by 22 points with women, down from 36 points last month. She’s ahead 18 points with men, up from 10 points.

While the two run virtually even with white voters, Clinton has the support of 85 percent of black voters and 86 percent of Latinos,? Greenberg said. ?She leads by 26 points with voters under 35, and by 16 points with those 55 and older. She leads by eight points with Catholics, 14 points with Jews and 21 points with Protestants.?

Clinton’s 52-46 favorability rating is virtually unchanged, while Trump’s negative 29-68 percent rating has worsened to 24-72.

On some key issues, New York voters overwhelmingly (by more than three to one) back a party to citizenship for those who are here illegally, and also believe that climate change is a significant threat to the planet. By smaller margins, they want to keep and improve Obamacare (18 points), consider themselves gun control supporters more than 2nd Amendment rights advocates (15 points), and want the federal government to do more – not less – to stimulate the economy (9 points).

U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer continues to widen his lead over his little-known Republican challenger, Wendy Long, who is hewing very closely to Trump in hopes of grabbing on to his coattails – assuming he has any. The Democratic senior senator is beating Long by 46 percentage points, up from 39 points last month.

Also some good news in this poll for the state Legislature, which has seen its numbers improve at a time when all of its seats are up for grabs in the November elections.

The Senate has a 48-41 percent favorability rating -? the best it?s ever been, and up from 41-45 percent last month. By a 51-38 percent margin, voters say they?re inclined to re-elect their local senator, up from 46-39 percent last month.

The Assembly, meanwhile, has a 44-40 percent favorability rating, which is within one point of its best ever rating, and up a little from 41-40 percent last month. Voters say they are inclined to re-elect their local Assembly member by 46-38 percent margin, up slightly from 42-36 percent last month.

As for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, he has a 57-39 percent favorability rating, which is up a little from 53-40 percent last month, and his job performance rating is a negative 41-57 percent, down a little from negative 43-55 percent last month.

If Cuomo runs for re-election in 2018, 45 percent of New York voters say they?re prepared to re-elect him, compared to 49 percent who would prefer ?someone else,? down a little from 46-47 in August.

Crosstabs for the latest poll appear below. Greenberg will be joining us on Capital Tonight this evening to review the numbers.

Crosstabs for Siena poll, Sept. 20, 2016 by liz_benjamin6490 on Scribd

Siena Poll: Clinton Expands Lead Over Trump In New York

From the Morning Memo:

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican rival Donald Trump among New York voters in the race for the presidency, 57 percent to 27 percent, a poll released Monday by Siena College found.

In a four-way race between Clinton, Trump, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former secretary of state still receives 50 percent of the vote, with Trump earning 25 percent.

The poll comes after a Clinton-Trump matchup in a June survey found her leading 54 percent to 31 percent and after weeks of missteps from Trump himself, including a feud with a gold star family who spoke at the Democratic National Convention and claiming President Obama is “the founder” of the Islamic State terrorist group.

Obama is viewed favorably by 62 percent of voters in New York, the poll found.

New York has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984 when Ronald Reagan won a landslide second term. The poll underscores a not wholly surprising fact: Despite claims from some Republicans the deep blue state could be competitive for Trump, the numbers do not bear that out.

Clinton is viewed as more qualified to be commander in chief than Trump among New York voters by a 40-percentage point margin. At the same time, Clinton is viewed as more likely to be able to work with Congress than Trump.

“Despite Trump’s claims to carry New York, the Empire State seems firmly planted on the blue side of the map, as Clinton holds a commanding 30-point lead in a head-to-head matchup and a similarly strong 25-point, two-toone lead in a four-way matchup,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.

“New Yorkers have voted Democratic in the last seven presidential elections and there does not appear to be a real threat to end that streak.”

Nevertheless, most voters in New York view both Clinton and Trump as untrustworthy: Only 37 percent of voters believe Clinton to be trustworthy, while 28 percent hold that view of Trump.

Upstate, where Trump is expected to do well, Clinton still out-polls him there, 48 percent to 37 percent in a two-person race. In a four-way race, Clinton defeats Trump upstate, 42 percent to 34 percent.

A majority of voters across every demographic in New York expected Clinton to defeat Trump in November.

The poll of 717 voters in New York was conducted from Aug. 7 through Aug. 10. It has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.

SNY0816 Crosstabs081516 by Nick Reisman on Scribd