From the Morning Memo:

The Trump for New York team has been critical of public polls showing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with an overwhelming lead in the Empire State, insisting her GOP opponent, Donald Trump, is actually running a lot more competitively in the candidates’ shared home state than the conventional wisdom allows.

And now it believes it has some evidence to back up its claims.

The state campaign effort commissioned its own poll conducted by McLaughlin and Associates, a national research firm with a New York office in Blauvelt. According to that poll, 49 percent of voters said they are likely to vote for Clinton, while 38 percent said they’re with Trump.

While these numbers still represent a double digit margin for the Democratic nominee, it’s a far cry from the projected 24 point lead in the most recent Siena Poll conducted Oct. 19th.

“We want New York voters to know that New York State is in play for the Presidential election and the down ticket,” CEO John McLaughlin said.

Trump NY honorary co-chair Carl Paladino, who has long maintained the Republican candidate will win New York, took things one step further, insisting the state is indeed “in play, alive and well, and will send its electoral votes for its favorite son, Donald Trump.”

The Buffalo developer is one of Trump’s most steadfast and outspoken supporters. During a recent interview on Capital Tonight, Paladino took aim at the Siena poll, claiming the research institute is biased toward Democrats.

In a press release, McLaughlin compared his poll’s sample to the one employed in the most recent Siena poll. Both questioned approximately the same number of likely voters – 600 to 611.

The key difference though, is that McLaughlin is predicting the electorate will be 47 percent Democratic and 29 percent Republican, a 3 point difference both ways in favor of the GOP. The firm believes turnout will look more like a mid-term election in New York, with Clinton probably taking a “big hit from corruption nationally,” while “Trump’s people are energized.”

According to the McLaughlin poll, about 96 percent of people questioned were likely to vote. Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”

The poll also focused on the supposed “hidden Trump vote” – a theory Paladino has also championed. Voters were asked if they knew anybody who planned to vote for the candidate but wasn’t telling people.

Forty percent said yes.