From the Morning Memo:

In 2010, Gov. Andrew Cuomo scored a resounding victory in his bid to become governor of New York, handily defeating Republican Carl Paladino.

The lopsided win, in an otherwise Republican wave year nationally, did not come with the backing of Erie County. Term One Cuomo sought to change, pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into western New York’s economy and lavishing attention on what had been an economically troubled area of the state.

The attention on economic development has led to corruption charges for developers, a former top official at SUNY Polytechnic, and a conviction for the governor’s former close advisor and confidant, Joe Percoco.

But Cuomo in 2014 wound up winning Erie County, threading the upstate needle in pockets like Albany and Tompkins counties as well, while also emphasizing women’s issues. And he overwhelmed Republican Rob Astorino in New York City.

This year, the Cuomo coalition is a demographic shape in the race for governor, both in the general election and primary theaters.

Cuomo is banking on a coalition of black and Latino voters, union households and suburbanites to put him over the top. And unlike 2010 and 2014 — not exactly election cycles friendly to Democrats — the party’s voters are expected to come out in droves, spurred by anger at the Trump administration.

Cuomo has been made sure to hammer President Donald Trump’s reaction to Puerto Rico, he’s appeared in public with his preferred candidate for attorney general Letitia James — who would become the first black woman to hold the post — and he’s sought and won the support of labor unions, mindful of the power its leadership exerted in the vote last year sinking the constitutional convention.

In public, Cuomo has been largely ignoring both his primary opponent Cynthia Nixon and Marc Molinaro, the Republican Dutchess County executive.

Instead, he’s been spreading largely broad themes that the Cuomo Coalition can support. In the last week, for instance, Cuomo has been hammering Republicans on gun control, blending Republicans in Washington with their more moderate counterparts on the state level in the process.

Nixon and her supporters like to goad Cuomo by suggesting he’s spent the last three months responding to her campaign on issues like marijuana legalization or bolstering the ailing mass transit system in New York City.

But Cuomo’s entire second term following a spirited primary bid by Zephyr Teachout has virtually been about recalibration, making peace with organized labor, banning hydrofracking, boosting the minimum wage multiple times as well as successful pushes for paid family leave and a college tuition plan.

The details of those measures have been argued over, with liberals saying the victories would have been more complete and resounding if Democrats had a majority stake in the state Senate, while Cuomo has aided Republicans in maintaining power.

Still, the murky Senate picture has pierced the broader bubble among voters, even as Cuomo has kicked the Senate unification push into a higher gear this year.

Democratic politicians like Cuomo — derided as corporate Democrats by the left, an endangered species among voters who are clamoring for a Bernie Sanders-style candidate to take the presidential nomination in 2020 — may be on the extinction list.

Sewing up this coalition, should it hold, leaves little room for Nixon. She is not contesting him with labor endorsements. She has not flipped prominent advocacy groups or elected officials to her fold. She’s running an asymmetrical campaign in a state dominated by an establishment largely lined up behind Cuomo.

Certainly a lot can change in the next three months: An unforeseen scandal, a gaffe of epic magnitude, or commuters desperate for improved mass transit they begin to break in droves for Nixon.

New York has tribal politics and fiefdoms that are jealously guarded. But they are not tearing their hair out at the moment over whether to bolt from Cuomo and stick with Nixon. Quite the opposite.

Cuomo appears to be betting that in New York at least the coalition of establishment figures like Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, buoyed by labor support in the most unionized state in the country, can power him through for the cycle.