From the Morning Memo:

The Democratic establishment in New York faces today what is perhaps its biggest challenge in a generation as Gov. Andrew Cuomo seeks affirmation from party voters and to put down a challenge from actress and education advocate Cynthia Nixon.

It’s been a rollicking and at-times wild primary season for New York, with today the culmination of an extended battle for the gubernatorial, lieutenant governor and attorney general nominations featuring candidates who range from longtime officeholders to those who want to bring an activist’s fervor to the job.

And today could remake how the state Senate, long a cauldron of uncertainty and discontent, is organized and composed next year.

Here are six things to watch for on this primary day:

1. Will bad news matter?

Tactically, it’s been a terrible last few days of the campaign for Cuomo. His celebrated opening of the second span of the Mario Cuomo Bridge was delayed several days after a piece of its successor bridge, the Tappan Zee, was found to have been destabilized. The Thruway Authority had previously encouraged the contractor to have the bridge ready by August, even offering to have taxpayers accept liability for any problems, according to a letter obtained by The New York Times. The second span is now open to traffic, but the issue likely won’t die down as we move toward the general election.

Then came what could go down in the history of New York politics as simply “the mailer.” The mail piece accusing Cuomo’s rival Nixon of anti-Semitism by falsely asserting she supports the movement to boycott, divest and sanction Israel landed like a loud, angry thud in the final days of the campaign. There have been charges and countercharges as to was to blame, the most recent being Larry Schwartz, a longtime figure on Team Cuomo. The campaign asserted to The New York Post on Wednesday that Schwartz simply reviewed the “positive side” of the mailer. Cuomo has condemned the mailer as have his critics and allies, and the famously hands-on governor has also insisted he had nothing to do with it.

It remains to be seen if these twin headaches for Cuomo will matter in the waning days of the campaign. A Siena College poll taken before the race found Cuomo up 41-percentage points over Nixon, a tough deficit to erase.

2. Polls versus Twitter.

But does polling work anymore? The hope for Nixon’s campaign is that the polling in the race has been catastrophically wrong this entire time, failing to pick up the underlying support from younger, first time voters who are willing to support her candidacy. Polls have consistently shown that instead of a tightening race for Cuomo, it’s become far more divergent in his favor as he’s poured millions of dollars into campaign advertising.

There’s a striking dichotomy, however, on social media, where the bulk of those engaged in politics appear to overwhelmingly support Nixon. Appear is a fair word to use at this point: The world of Twitter can amplify voices and create bubbles, while also creating a false reality and echo chamber. Is Twitter real life? Well, no. But can that online enthusiasm translate to votes for Nixon?

The Nixon team points to congressional races in Queens and in Massachusetts in which traditional polling has been flat wrong. The win of Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez over Rep. Joe Crowley in June has given Nixon a narrative boost and likely driven Cuomo to spend far more money than he would have in this race in order to bolster his chances.

3. Will Cuomo’s center hold?

Cuomo has a clear coalition that can lead him to victory today. He’s got labor union endorsements, a key component needed in order to mount any sort of ground game, especially in New York City. He’s got suburban Democrats, who have traditionally liberal views up until they get a look at their property tax bill. And he’s got western New York, namely Erie County, an area rich with Democratic votes. He’s running with his preferred candidate for attorney general, Letitia James, the New York City public advocate, who has a base in Brooklyn, another vote-rich area for Democrats. It’s a tightly knit coalition that gives Nixon little breathing room. She’s got a more nebulous path in new voters, commuters who blame Cuomo for the lousy state of the subways in New York City and upstaters outside of Erie County who do not like him.

Four years ago, Zephyr Teachout was able to harness votes from state workers miffed by Cuomo’s hardball contract negotiations and pension reforms and those who wanted to ban hydrofracking. That was good for about 34 percent of the vote, including victories in the Capital Region and Tompkins County, home of liberal Ithaca. It’s a different landscape four years later: Cuomo banned fracking soon after the general election and the state’s two largest public workers unions have endorsed him.

4. A wide open AG’s race.

In 2010, Eric Schneiderman was able to overcome an open field that was the attorney general primary by dint of his labor support and his status as an elected official in New York City. Schneiderman is gone now, having resigned in May after multiple women accused him of physical abuse.

But James hopes to replicate that strategy from 2010: She’s a citywide elected official and has most of the major labor unions on her side. She’s also got the backing of Cuomo, who in any other year would have remained publicly neutral in such a contest.

This isn’t any other year. James faces Cuomo’s rival from the 2014 gubernatorial primary, Zephyr Teachout, as well as Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney and Leecia Eve, a former economic development official and executive at Verizon.

All of the candidates are in virtual agreement they would target the policies of President Donald Trump’s administration while in office, making their policy differences virtually indistinguishable. That’s led to charges and counter charges between the campaigns of accepting money from boogeymen of the liberal base: Accepting money from the world of real estate and business.

It remains to be seen if voters will care about Maloney’s decision to run for attorney general and press forward simultaneously for his congressional seat, which has in the past been a swing district or if Teachout, running on the defacto Nixon ticket, will have more success.

5. Will Senate incumbents survive?

In April, the Independent Democratic Conference disbanded, rejoining the mainline Democratic fold. A somewhat awkward press conference was preceded by months of wrangling by Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s team in order to forge some sort of peace within the party’s factions of the chamber, which Republicans narrowly control. But the merger has not stopped challengers to the former IDC lawmakers, nor did the peace treaty prevent elected officeholders like U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Comptroller Scott Stringer from endorsing them over the incumbents. The primaries have split labor unions, as well, providing another dose of uncertainty.

Outside of the ex-IDC, there are incumbents like Sen. Martin Dilan, who is locked in a primary against Julia Salazar. Questions have been raised about Salazar’s official biography and false claims she has made there. At the same time, Salazar revealed she was a victim of sexual misconduct by a spokesman for the Israeli prime minister, an announcement made just before a conservative website had planned to post a story outing her.

Democrats hope to win enough seats to hold a majority in the Senate next year. But that majority could be a mix of self-idenfitied democratic socialists who want a single-payer health care system and moderate suburbanites who blanch at any mention of tax increases. Today could provide a window into what the Senate looks like next year.

6. Will Democrats turnout?

Turnout is woefully low in these primaries. That’s compounded by New York’s voting laws as well as the bizarre situation of the last several cycles in which two primaries — one for congressional races in June and today’s state races — are held on separate dates because of a court ruling.

Th calendar is also unusual given this is a Thursday, a move necessitated by this Tuesday falling on the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks and the second day of Rosh Hashanah.

Turnout in 2014 stood at around 9 percent. The relative success of Teachout that year has perhaps spurred Cuomo to turn out his own voters this year, making ticking this upward a bit.

And then there’s the intangible of the mood of the electorate dissatisfied with incumbents, the subways, upstate joblessness and population loss and Trump.