From the Morning Memo:

A report released this week by the credit rating agency Moody’s found the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions is not the cause of people fleeing the high-tax states most affected by the provision.

The report examined out-migration patterns from California, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York, finding those who are leaving those states are doing so for traditional reasons: Job opportunities elsewhere and demographic trends.

“Job opportunities and demographic trends, more so than tax rates, influence relocation from one state to another,” said Marcia Van Wagner, a Moody’s VP-Senior Credit Officer. “That said, the $10,000 SALT cap will be widely felt for the first time this tax season, and could spur some out-migration from high-tax states.”

Still, a low-tax state, Florida, remains a popular destination for New Yorkers. Fourteen percent of the people who moved out of New York headed south to the Sunshine State in 2017, with about 10 to 12 percent of the people leaving Connecticut, Maryland and New Jersey also moving there.

“Florida’s low taxes are likely one contributor to its popularity,” the report found. “Generally speaking, however, taxes are not the prime driver of interstate relocation decisions. Job opportunities, climate and housing costs (including property taxes) are primary considerations. Movers also consider the quality of services provided by their destination states.”

Gov. Andrew Cuomo has railed against the cap on deductions for state and local taxes, calling it an unfair attack on New York and other Democratic-leaning states. He’s met multiple times with President Donald Trump to discuss the issue as well as members of his administration.

Cuomo also blamed the SALT limit for a revenue decline seen at the end of last year. At the same time, he warned against raising taxes on the rich, worried they could easily depart the state.

While Florida is attracting some wealthy residents, they aren’t going to low-tax states overall.

“Florida has net in-migration from virtually every other state in the nation, including by some new wealthy residents,” Moody’s found. “Researchers have found a correlation between millionaires’ moves to Florida and the tax differential between Florida and their home state. But the wealthy are not drawn to other low-tax states disproportionately, suggesting that low taxes alone are not sufficient to attract wealthy domestic movers.”