From the Morning Memo:

If a tentative deal between United Auto Workers and General Motors comes to fruition, it could have a far-reaching impact in Western New York.

Roughly 3,000 employees from the region’s Tonawanda and Lockport plants have been out of work for more than a month now. SUNY Buffalo State economist Fred Floss estimated that could amount to as much as $15 million that didn’t enter the local economy over that time.

“Every sector is interrelated to every other sector in the economy so when one sector gets hurt, all these other sectors are going to be hurt as well,” he said. “So it’s going to take probably a good six months to a year for us to recover and all of this to get back to normal.”

The details of the four-year deal were not released but GM’s latest offer included wage increases, lump-sum payment, health insurance and promises of a path to full-time work for temporary workers.

Floss said gaining those new full-time workers will be a “very good” thing that helps Buffalo in the long-term. He said if the contract avoids major healthcare cutbacks, that will be a big win for the area’s large hospital systems too.

As for immediate impacts, his expectations are a little more tempered.

“I suspect that most of these workers, at least in the near term, are going to be pretty slow in going out and spending money,” Floss said.

The economist said workers likely started cutting back on things like going out to restaurants or back-to-school shopping. Even if they get backpay in lump sums, he expects a lot of that money will go toward bills.

For now, the strikes are ongoing but union members reportedly could return to work as soon as the end of this week.