Internal Poll Shows Maloney Up 6 in NY-18

From the Morning Memo:

A poll conducted by the Global Strategy Group for Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney shows the Democratic congressman with a 6-point lead over his Republican opponent, former Rep. Nan Hayworth, heading into the final stretch of their re-match in NY-18.

According to this poll of 401 likely voters, Maloney is leading Hayworth 46-40 with 14 percent still undecided, even though Election Day is right around the corner.

The poll was conducted Oct. 21-23, and Maloney’s campaign – as is standard operating procedure at the congressional level – only shared a portion of the poll results. (At the state level, it’s an all-or-nothing proposition when it comes to making poll data public).

Voters’ opinions of Maloney’s job performance were largely positive, 47-35, and his favorable/unfavorable rating was 44-29.

Hayworth’s favorable/unfavorable rating was 39-41.

Only 30 percent of voters believed she would be able to working with members of both parties on behalf of the Hudson Valley, while 43 percent said Maloney is able to cross party lines to get things done.

Bipartisanship has been a big focus in this race, with Maloney touting the support he has received from a number of local GOP elected officials – especially state Sen. Bill Larkin – in the closely-divded district.

Hayworth released an internal poll of her own this week, which, not surprisingly, does not concur with the findings of Maloney’s survey.

According to the Public Opinion Strategies poll conducted Oct. 23-25 of 400 likely voters for Hayworth’s campaign, the NY-18 race is a dead heat, with each candidate receiving 42 percent of the vote, and a third party candidate, Scott Smith, getting 3 percent.

The Global Strategy poll billed this race as a “two-way contest” between Maloney and Hayworth.

A ballot test that did not include the third party candidate was still a 44-44 tie, according to the Public Opinion Strategies poll, suggesting neither is either helped or hurt by the presence of a contender with no money or name recognition. (Smith is running on the self-created “Mr. Smith for Congress” line).

Both polls have a 4.9 percent margin of error.

According to Hayworth’s poll, the former congresswoman “has the momentum” as Election Day nears, as she was down eight percentage points in a September Siena poll, (50-42, with 8 percent undecided).

Siena is about to release a second poll of this district, so we’ll get yet another assessment of the race before voters head to the ballot box for, as candidates like to say, the only poll that really matters.

NY 18 Poll Memo 10.28.14-2.pdf by Nick Reisman

TWC News/Siena College Poll: Gibson Lead Unchanged Over Eldridge

With a week to go before Election Day, Republican Congressman Chris Gibson is on track to win a third term over his Demcoratic challenger, Sean Eldridge, according to an exclusive Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll of the 19th congressional district.

The poll found Gibson leading Eldridge 58 percent to 35 percent — a 23 percentage point gap. That’s virtually unchanged from a poll released in September that showed Gibson with a 24-point lead. Meanwhile, Gibson enjoys a high favorable rating — 60 percent. Eldridge, a first-time candidate, has become better known, but 35 percent of voters hold an unfavorable view of him compared to 33 percent who view him favorably.

Gibson remains well liked among Republicans, with 78 percent supporting him. Democrats are split, but not by much: 41 percent hold a favorable view compared to 45 percent who do not.

Overall, 28 percent of Democrats poll said they would vote for Gibson, compared to 67 percent who side Eldridge.

Perhaps most problematic for Eldridge is a solid majority of voters have made up their minds in the race: 69 percent say they have made their decision, with no chance they’ll change their mind. Of those voters, 71 percent say they’re voting for Gibson.

“Barring some dramatic, unforeseen event in the closing week of this campaign, the voters are clearly locked in,” Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said.

Gibson’s lead comes despite a flurry of advertising on television and the radio from Eldridge’s campaign The ads have blasted Gibson for supporting hydrofracking and for campaign contributions his opponent says influenced his votes in Washington. But the ads have apparently had little impact.

Gibson, too, has spent heavily on ads knocking Eldridge as a carpetbagger, while the National Republican Campaign Committee has provided some attack ads as well.

Nevertheless, a plurality of voters — 40 percent — believe Eldridge is running the more negative campaign.

In the race for governor, incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo trails Republican Rob Astorino in the 19th congressional district 38 percent to 39 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives 14 percent of the vote.

It’s a reverse for Cuomo, who last month led Astorino 39 percent to 36 percent. Nevertheless, Siena pollster Steve Greenberg says that’s a reflection of the closely divided congressional district.

The poll of 727 likely voters in the NY-19 was conducted from Oct. 22 through Oct. 24. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

CD191014 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman

Siena Poll: Hawkins Could Eat Into Cuomo’s Final Tally

Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo continues to hold a double-digit lead over his Republican opponent, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, with less than two weeks to go before Election Day, according to a Siena College poll released this morning.

The poll found Cuomo leading Astorino, 54-33, with Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receiving 9 percent of the vote.

The result is a slight dip for Cuomo from the previous month, when Siena College found the governor leading Astorino 56-27, with Hawkins at 7 percent.

With Hawkins gaining some ground in the polls, it’s possible the Green Party candidate can eat into a chunk of Cuomo’s overall total come Election Day.

“If Hawkins does that well on Election Day – something third party candidates often don’t do – then it will almost certainly make this year’s race closer than four years ago and keep Cuomo well below his total vote from 2010,” said Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg.

Cuomo received 63 percent of the vote against Republican Carl Paladino in 2010.

Hawkins is a proven vote getter for the Green Party. He received more than 50,000 votes in 2010 to give the party automatic ballot status this election.

Hawkins is hoping to tap into liberal dissatisfaction with Cuomo, and gain some of the supporters of Fordham Law School professor Zephyr Teachout, who ran a surprisingly strong primary challenge to the governor in September.

Still, the poll shows Cuomo blowing out Astorino in New York City, where he leads 72-16. He also has the support of 79 percent of self-identified liberal voters.

Upstate, Cuomo’s lead is smaller: He leads Astorino 47-38.

The race is closest in the suburban counties, where it is a virtual tie. Cuomo is actually trailing Astorino 44-46.

And the governor, who has pushed hard on his 10-point Women’s Equality Act, leads Astorino among female voters 65 percent to 25 percent, according to the poll’s crosstabs.

Cuomo has a favorability rating of 54 percent, compared to 43 percent of voters who do not have a favorable view of him – the highest unfavorable rating he’s garnered from Siena to date.

Astorino, a first-time statewide candidate, continues to show a high negative rating: 41 percent of voters have an unfavorable view of him, compared to 32 percent who view him favorably.

In the other statewide races, Democratic AG Eric Schneiderman holds a 20-point lead over his Republican challenger, John Cahill, 55-35. Schneiderman’s lead grew by 5 percentage points from last month – likely thanks to the fact that the AG is now running TV ads.

Meanwhile, in the race for state comptroller, incumbent Democrat Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Onondaga County Comptroller 58-31 – the largest gap of the three statewide races.

The poll of 748 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 16 through Oct. 20. It has a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

SNY1014 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman

Gibson Campaign Poll Shows Him Leading Eldridge

A poll conducted by Republican Rep. Chris Gibson’s campaign shows the incumbent leading his Democratic challenger Sean Eldridge by 26 percentage points.

The poll found Gibson leading Eldridge 56 percent to 30 percent in the Hudson Valley congressional district.

The survey, which was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, is largely in line with the public poll conducted by Time Warner Cable News and Siena College and released last month, which showed Gibson leading by 24 percentage points.

The poll found 62 percent of voters in the district have a favorable view of Gibson, compared to 19 percent that have an unfavorable impression him.

Gibson’s campaign says the poll is a reflection that the amount of money poured into the race by Eldridge’s campaign has had little impact.

“Simply put, this poll once again proves New Yorkers’ votes aren’t for sale. Despite being outspent by over two million dollars, Congressman Gibson’s lead remains steady and strong. No amount of money can fix the fact that Sean Eldridge is inexperienced and out of touch,” said Gibson campaign manager Kevin Crumb.

The poll of 400 voters was conducted from Oct. 14 through Oct. 15. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

NY 19 Oct 16 Key Findings Memo by Nick Reisman

Internal Hayworth Poll: NY-18 Race Is A Statistical Tie (Updated)

From the Morning Memo:

According to an internal poll conducted for Nan Hayworth’s campaign, the former congresswoman is closing fast on her Democratic opponent, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, and now trails him by just 4 percentage points.

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Maloney leading Hayworth 39-43, with a third party candidate, Scott Smith, receiving 2 percent of the vote.

The margin of error for this poll of 400 likely voters is 4.9 percent, which means this race is a statistical dead heat.

A Siena poll released last month showed Hayworth trailing Maloney by 8 percentage points.

Hayworth’s campaign shared just the top lines of the poll with SoP, providing no additional details or crosstabs. (Federal election rules, unlike state requirements, do not mandate that candidates release entire poll results if they make just some information public).

The poll memo warns, however, that this situation is “eerily similar” to the 2012 election, when Hayworth was up 7 percentage points in an October Siena poll, only to see her lead slip away come November.

“Bottom line – if the Hayworth campaign is able to appropriately fund paid media for the final push to get Nan’s message out to voters in the district, she can win back this congressional seat on November 4th,” the memo concludes.

The DCCC is clearly worried about Maloney’s chances of holding onto his seat next month.

The national Democats recently pulled funding for TV airtime from two flailing upstate congressional campaigns in NY-21 (Aaron Woolf) and NY-23 (Martha Robertson), and shifted the cash to NY-18.

Using that money, the DCCC recently launched its first attack ad against Hayworth, echoing Maloney’s main campaign theme that she is too conservative to represent the evenly divided district.

Update: Stephanie Formas of the Maloney campaign weighs in on the poll.

“This self-serving release of selectively hand-picked poll results is a Hail Mary attempt to save the campaign of a self proclaimed radical who supports a Tea Party agenda to privatize Social Security and defund Planned Parenthood to give more tax breaks for multimillionaires like herself,” she said. “There’s a reason even Republican elected officials are supporting Sean’s results-driven, bi-partisan approach.”

NY-18 internal poll for GOP former Rep. Nan Hayworth's campaign. by liz_benjamin6490

Gibson’s Latest Validator: His Mom

Rep. Chris Gibson’s latest TV ad features a variety of people – including his own mother – praising him for “keeping his word” when it comes to protecting seniors and veterans.

The spot, which will air in all four media markets of NY-19 – Albany, Binghamton, New York City and Utica – mainly stars Chatham resident Anne Marie Mink. She tells the story of her father, local World War II veteran Tom Spierto, and her family’s quest to get him the medals he earned while serving in the military 60 years ago.

There’s also a photo of the congressman in fatigues, highliting his own 29-year military service. The ad closes with the Gibson’s mother, Barbara Gibson, who says her son “kept his word” to protect Social Security, Medicare and veterans benefits. Barbara Gibson also appeared in a 2012 ad with much the same message – that Gibson would protect federal services for his elderly constituents.

Two years ago, Gibson defeated his Democratic challenger, former prosecutior and ex-Ulster County Democratic CHairman Julian Schreibman, winning about 53 percent of the vote in the redrawn NY-19, which had been altered in redistricting to include more Democrats and independent voters.

This year, Gibson is facing off against another Democratic newcomer, Sean Eldridge. A recent Siena poll showed Gibson leading by 24 percentage points.

Here’s the script for the new ad…no word on the size of the buy, or how long it will run:

“Anne Marie Mink: I have a 91-year old Dad, he’s a World War II veteran. Chris and his office worked really hard to get him his medals that he never had. When he sees my Dad – any of the veterans, World War II, Korea, Vietnam – he gives them the respect they deserve. And he gets the respect from all of us.

Announcer: In Congress, Chris Gibson always protects Social Security and Medicare for our seniors.

Barbara Gibson: He kept his word, like I knew he would.”

Q-Poll: Cuomo 51, Astorino 31

Gov. Andrew Cuomo leads his Republican opponent Rob Astorino by 20 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday morning.

The poll found Cuomo receives the support of 51 percent of voters polled compared to Astorino’s 31 percent. Howie Hawkins, the Green Party candidate, received 9 percent.

Without Hawkins in the race, Cuomo leads 55 percent to 34 percent.

Cuomo’s lead in the August Quinnipiac poll was wider, when the governor led Astornio 56 percent to 28 percent. Hawkins was not included in that poll.

Quinnipiac’s news release on the poll points to Cuomo’s 32-percentage point lead among women voters.

“New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo got a head start on the Quinnipiac University poll with his weekend campaign bus ride touting women’s issues. A monster lead among women voters powers him past Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino,” said Quinnipiac’s Mickey Carroll. “It ain’t over ‘til it’s over, but more than two-thirds of voters say their minds are made up.”

Indeed, Cuomo has a large advantage with women as he promotes his support for the passage of the full women’s agenda. But the last time Quinnipiac polled the race for governor in August, Cuomo had an even larger lead among women, with a 38 percentage-point difference separating him and Astorino.

Nevertheless, Astorino has some work to do not just with women, but in the overall favorability department.

Cuomo’s favorable rating is at 50 percent, with 39 percent of voters holding an unfavorable opinion of him.

Astorino, meanwhile, is underwater: 27 percent hold a favorable view of him, while 29 percent do not. Forty-three percent of voters don’t know enough about him to form an opinion, the poll found.

Cuomo continues to hold a wide fundraising advantage over Astorino, and the state Democratic Committee has been used a surrogate to blast the Republican nominee in a series of negative ads on television.

In the race for attorney general, Democratic incumbent Eric Schneidermans leads Republican John Cahill 46 percent to 34 percent.

And in the comptroller’s race, Tom DiNapoli, the Democratic officeholder, leads his Republican challenger 56 percent to 28 percent.

The poll of 1,153 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 1 through Oct. 6. It has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Bad News For Upstate Senate Dems In Three Siena Polls

Democratic incumbents in key upstate Senate districts all trail their Republican challengers by double digit percentage points in a trio of Siena College polls released this morning.

The results dovetail with polls last week on Long Island showing Republicans there leading their Democratic challengers.

But the polls highlighting the challenges facing upstate incumbent freshman will likely add a new level of urgency to the fight for full Democratic control of the chamber with a month to go before Election Day.

In the 41st Senate District in the Hudson Valley, Republican Sue Serino leads Democratic Sen. Terry Gipson by 12 percentage points, 52 percent to 40 percent.

Gipson won two years ago due to a three-way race featuring Republican Sen. Stephen Saland and Conservative Party candidate Neil DiCarlo.

Saland had lost the Conservative Party line to DiCarlo, who challenged him over his support for the legalization of same-sex marriage.

Ultimately Gipson prevailed, but received less than 50 percent of the vote in the three-way race.

Democratic Sen. Cecilia Tkaczyk, a freshman lawmaker who defeated Republican George Amedore in 2012 by just 18 votes, is trailing him in the rematch race 52 percent to 42 percent.

Tkaczyk’s narrow win came in part to an infusion of cash from organizations that backed the public financing of political campaigns.

Her win two years ago was even more amazing because her district, newly created, was drawn by Republicans to maximize GOP votes.

In the Rochester area, Democratic Sen. Ted O’Brien appears to have the heaviest lift: Republican Rich Funke holds a wide 25-percentage point lead, 57 percent to 32 percent.

O’Brien won his seat when another Senate Republican who support same-sex marriage, Jim Alesi, retired rather than seek re-election.

O’Brien in the end defeated Assemblyman Sean Hanna by 4 percentage points.

Democrats have closely monitoring the 55th Senate District race, especially given Funke’s name recognition as a longtime broadcaster in the area.

In two of three race Senate district races — Gispon versus Serino and O’Brien versus Funke — Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, leads his Republican challenger Rob Astorino.

However, Cuomo trails Astorino in the 46th Senate District, 43 percent to 35 percent.

The bad poll results on Long Island and now upstate come after a Nassau County Democratic candidate in a battleground race, Dave Denenberg, was accused of defrauding his law firm out of $2 million.

Democrats, for now, are not pushing the panic button.

Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chairman Mike Gianaris said in an interview last week that polls historically show Republicans doing better at this point and the races will likely tighten.

“I think what everyone needs to bare in mind historically this is the low point in polling for our candidates, always,” said Gianaris, a Queens Democrat. “None of that is unusual or troubling.”

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats reported having $1.4 million in cash on hand. The Senate Republican Campaign Committee has roughly twice that amount, $2.9 million.

Cuomo, meanwhile, has pledged to help turn the Senate to full Democratic control and in June brokered a deal with the mainline conference and the five-member Independent Democratic Conference, which is currently in a coalition with Republicans.

State Democratic Committee spokesman Peter Kauffmann said in an interview last week Cuomo will begin making public shows of support for Democratic candidates in the Senate in the coming weeks.

UPDATE: Senate GOP Leader Dean Skelos said:

“This is shaping up to be an extraordinary year for Senate Republicans and we are going to win a clear majority. Every objective measure, including the five Siena College polls released to date, continues to overwhelmingly bear that out.”

Update X2: And Senate Democratic spokesman Mike Murphy weighs in as well:

“The Senate Republicans have poured millions into these campaigns and been up on tv, radio and mail spreading their misleading attacks and distortions,” he said. “As the playing field equals voters will respond to our message of job creation, lower taxes, protections for women’s rights and health and a higher minimum wage. The real campaign season is just beginning.”

Here’s the crosstabs for SD41:

Crosstabs for Siena poll of SD 41. by liz_benjamin6490

..and SD 46 (Amedore vs. Tkaczyk):

Crosstabs for SD 46 Siena poll. by liz_benjamin6490

…and SD 55 (O’Brien vs. Funke):

Crosstabs for SD 55. by liz_benjamin6490

7th SD Poll: Martins Crushing Haber With 25-Point Lead

A Siena/Newsday/News 12 Long Island poll released tonight has very good news for Sen. Jack Martins and his fellow Republicans, showing the incumbent Nassau County lawmaker leading his Democratic challenger, businessman Adam Haber, by a whopping 25 percentage points.

“Less than five weeks until Election Day and Martins sits in a very strong position – a 25-point lead, holding 82 percent of Republicans, winning among independents nearly two-to-one and picking up the support of one-third of Democrats,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “He leads by 30 points with men and 20 points with women, and even has the support of 40 percent of Cuomo voters.”

“…If Haber hopes to make this race competitive, he’s going to need to find a way to bring Democrats home and appeal to those voters who support Cuomo but also favor Martins. A lot of work in five weeks.”

Martins is viewed favorably by more than half the voters polled, and unfavorably by only 14 percent, Greenberg noted. While Haber is unknown to half the voters in the 7th SD – despite the fact that he ran a failed campaign for Nassau County executive last year, losing to former County Executive Tom Suozzi in the Democratic primary – and is viewed unfavorably by nearly as many voters as view him favorably.

This strong showing by Martins is not being experienced by the man at the top of the GOP ballot this fall, Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino, who is trailing the Democratic governor by 29 percentage points.

Martins arguably benfitted from the recent implosion of Democratic state Senate candidate Dave Denenberg in the adjacent 8th SD. Denenberg was the Democrats’ top chance of a pick-up in the race for the district that was once held by former GOP Sen. Chuck Fuschillo, but then he was forced to fold his campaign after his former law firm partners filed a lawsuit accusing him of billing a client for $2 million worth of legal services that were never actually delivered.

Denenberg’s name will remain on the November ballot, as Democrats abandoned their plan to nominate him for a judgeship and run a replacement candidate in his place. But he’s not actively campaigning, and hasn’t even been seeen attending Nassau County Legislature meetings for his current job. His GOP legislative colleague, Michael Venditto, is pretty much guaranteed a win, which frees up resources the GOP has planned to spend to defend this seat that they can use to defend Martins – not that he appears to need much defending, according to this poll.

The Republicans are, not surprisingly, very happy about this poll, which GOP Leader Dean Skelos called “very strong evidence that Republicans are well on their way to winning a clear majority in the State Senate.”

“Jack Martins is a smart and effective legislator for the people, and he deserves to be re-elected to the Senate,” Skelos continued.

“…His opponent, who has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars of his own money and gotten nowhere, is seeking to join the same New York City-dominated conference that enacted the job-killing MTA payroll tax, took the STAR rebate checks away from seniors and homeowners, and shifted school aid to New York City at Long Island’s expense.”

“These results show Long Island residents want bipartisanship and balance, not all-Democrat, all-New York City rule – with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio calling all the shots.”

The Democrats, meanwhile, are doing damage control, basically noting that a poll is just a snapshot in time, and there is just over a month remaining in the campaign for Haber to raise his name recognition and close the gap between him and Martins. The Haber campaign also pointed out that the candidate just went onto the air with his first ad this week – after the poll was already out of the field.

“Campaign season is just getting started, as proven by the fact that more than half of voters have not settled on a choice as of yet,” said Haber campaign spokesman Jacob Tugendrajch. “While Adam Haber’s advertising is just beginning, Jack Martins and his extremist GOP allies have been pouring money into this district trying to distract from the fact that he has consistently voted against women’s rights and health, supported higher taxes and fees and blocked all ethics reforms to clean up Albany. As TV ads and direct mail balance out over the next month, Nassau voters will see that Adam Haber’s message of lower taxes, women’s rights and fully funded schools are the clear choice for this district.”

Siena/News 12 LI/Newsday poll on 7th SD race. by liz_benjamin6490

Siena Poll: Cuomo Leads Astorino By 29 Points

Gov. Andrew Cuomo maintains a wide, 29-percentage point lead over his Republican rival Rob Astorino with less than 40 days to go before Election Day, a Siena College poll found.

The survey released Friday morning found Cuomo leads Astorino, the Westchester County executive, 56 percent to 27 percent. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives 7 percent of the support from those polled.

The poll found Cuomo’s favorability rating has dropped slightly since August, but not significantly.

Fifty-five percent of voters polled have a favorable opinion of the governor, down from 57 percent last month. Meanwhile, 40 percent of voters in the poll today reported an unfavorable opinion of Cuomo, an increase from 36 percent last month.

Astorino’s favorable-unfavorable spread is more narrow: 29 percent of voters hold a favorable opinion, while 30 percent do not. Forty percent have no opinion or don’t know enough about him to provide an answer.

The poll comes after Cuomo defeated his Democratic primary rival, Zephyr Teachout, a little known Fordham Law School professor, and political activist Randy Credico.

Both Teachout and Credico combined for 40 percent of the vote against the incumbent Democrat.

In the poll’s cross tabs, Cuomo leads in practically every demographic group, save for enrolled Republicans and self-identified conservatives.

Cuomo receives support from 51 percent of men polled, while he’s also getting the support of 59 percent of women.

Among liberals, Cuomo garners 74 percent of the support against Astorino. Among upstate voters, he leads Astorino 47 percent to 34 percent.

A majority of voters — 54 percent — believe Cuomo has made the state a better place to live, with 41 percent saying he has not.

The race for state attorney general, meanwhile, tightened, though incumbent Demcorat Eric Schneiderman still leads Republican John Cahill by 16 percentage points.

The poll found Schneiderman leading Cahill, a former top aide to Gov. George Pataki, 50 percent to 34 percent.

Last month, the Siena poll found Schneiderman leading Cahill 54 percent to 27 percent.

The Siena poll of 809 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 18 through Sept. 23. It has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

SNY0914 Crosstabs by Nick Reisman